Although they have made great economic strides, any of these REPs could stumble if they do not take steps to improve their business climates by undertaking a range of trade, regulatory, and structural reforms. At the same time, other large developing countries that have enormous economic potential, such as Egypt, Iran, Nigeria, and Vietnam, could rise if they successfully address underlying political and economic challenges.
The United States has sought increased IPR protection in its FTAs that go beyond the level of protection provided in the WTO Trade Related Aspects of Intellectual Property (TRIPS) Agreement. Some of these efforts to enhance intellectual property protection have made considerable progress among U.S. free trade agreement (FTA) partners, but serious problems remain among the REPs. A study done by the U.S. International Trade Commission estimates those losses to U.S. industry from intellectual property infringements in China alone totaled roughly $48 billion in 2009. To crack down on piracy and counterfeiting, the U.S. government has brought two IPR-related cases against China in the WTO, and placed China, as well as India, Indonesia, and Russia, on a USTR Priority Watch List in an effort to secure greater and fairer access of intellectual property-intensive products exported to REP markets. Many of these countries have made significant strides to improve their IPR laws, but enforcement remains a significant concern.66
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Any response could begin by reconsidering overall U.S. trade policy goals, as well as specific objectives vis-a-vis the REPs. To promote those objectives, policymakers have a full range of multilateral, regional, bilateral, and unilateral trade initiatives to consider. How the Obama Administration and 113th Congress prioritize and shape these trade initiatives will fundamentally determine the course of U.S. trade leadership in the years ahead.
Given that both a full restoration of U.S. economic vitality and robust unilateral reforms by the REPs are unlikely in the near term, the United States most likely will continue efforts to open REP markets via negotiations. While U.S. negotiating priorities are likely to be for rules in which the private sector or shareholder-owned companies are the primary economic actors, the REPs are likely to insist on language that will preserve more discretion for government action. The question of the appropriate role of government has contributed to many trade disputes in the past and is unlikely to be resolved permanently by any future trade negotiation.140 2ff7e9595c
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